Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 79981.066974 84455.733311 88930.964939 93739.399837 98756.429427 103833.473821 109356.358592
2025-05-18 72282.576186 79100.862496 86113.234077 93854.263459 102149.928785 110763.100979 120371.844776
2025-05-25 66751.758343 75145.892780 83971.170476 93920.981129 104805.589698 116330.064391 129433.469480
2025-06-01 63175.884369 72816.905801 83139.733086 94981.062885 108153.875380 122322.982182 138680.488760
2025-06-08 59409.468217 69936.486816 81392.787306 94737.057221 109801.907249 126230.677229 145448.540165
2025-06-15 57255.925603 68663.538799 81256.217126 96120.721935 113116.560298 131871.417731 154058.556896
2025-06-22 55017.319318 67130.018872 80679.081216 96870.326026 115600.476846 136493.259620 161463.515313
2025-06-29 52664.278914 65323.803665 79663.065294 96998.129704 117271.878780 140114.906745 167676.087306
2025-07-06 50504.979084 63629.647909 78672.909584 97058.124752 118781.089228 143487.106066 173559.243448
2025-07-13 49461.519299 63194.144606 79102.186500 98733.944315 122141.254952 148983.959852 181910.635575
2025-07-20 48369.994161 62637.430669 79334.031077 100130.695990 125141.734199 154048.884877 189767.590067
2025-07-27 46962.663420 61630.311751 78968.389951 100761.398521 127192.669076 157975.075004 196281.301718
2025-08-03 45241.537066 60195.383829 78055.760591 100716.041429 128437.321620 160973.916482 201755.449341
2025-08-10 43760.579985 59006.812515 77399.371177 100945.410699 129989.168698 164331.481294 207671.677137
2025-08-17 42307.353040 57797.936306 76668.775191 101039.226826 131341.524504 167429.319126 213273.161971
2025-08-24 41442.237842 57300.615942 76793.406263 102168.874796 133951.509780 172048.722332 220734.162824
2025-08-31 39981.947572 55985.831478 75843.575141 101911.064682 134809.418853 174510.912054 225560.457601
2025-09-07 39391.878901 55776.126424 76274.191971 103379.171597 137813.595073 179612.484104 233646.313066
2025-09-14 38537.180267 55186.983235 76192.534136 104174.350686 139960.417671 183656.277178 240445.393828
2025-09-21 37440.614096 54240.892534 75618.268985 104309.920050 141252.451728 186629.254275 245921.873061
2025-09-28 36368.330527 53292.767835 75010.163779 104373.557174 142431.485870 189449.954349 251210.694742
2025-10-05 36061.613049 53363.395971 75725.453696 106150.871790 145807.276505 195041.811988 260000.923367
2025-10-12 35650.833530 53275.423095 76219.210878 107631.961684 148804.224193 200170.172651 268239.343706